Saturday, November 7, 2009
Friday, November 6, 2009
Stock Timing
Via: Stock Timing:
Remember last week when we discussed: "The SPY squeeze"?
In that update, we mentioned that : "the SPY's bottom support is rising toward the gap's resistance line." We mentioned it was a "squeeze" because the distance between the resistance and support was becoming a smaller and smaller as every day went by. In other words, resistance and support are converging on each other.
Here we are a week later and that did not change as seen in the first chart. But, what is interesting is the second chart ...
This chart shows the SPY and our C-RSI (zero based Relative Strength).
While everything appears pretty normal on the SPY's chart, it doesn't when you look at what has been happening to the SPY's Strength.
First note, that the SPY and the C-RSI has a recent "negative divergence" ... and that usually spells trouble down the road.
Now look at the blue arrows. Note that as the SPY has been moving up and making higher/lows (the definition of an up trend), the C-RSI Strength has been moving downward and making lower/lows (the definition of a down trend).
From our past postings, you know that the SPY halted its upward progress after closing its gap at 109.68. So now, the C-RSI is moving up, but has a resistance line to deal with today. If it makes it past that, then retesting the gap's resistance would be the big challenge because of the falling Strength.
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Stocks Are Mirroring 2007's Top: McHugh
In Thursday's newsletter to subscribers we show a fascinating pattern that occurred at the 2007 stock market top that kicked off this Bear Market, and compare it to nearly identical patterns occuring now in the Industrials, S&P 500 and NDX. In 2007 we saw a similar rally as is occuring now, just before stocks topped.
Give yourself the investing advantage with a 5 months for $99 subscription special at the Subscribe Today button at www.technicalindicatorindex.com
Gold hit another new all-time high Thursday, November 5th. Patterns suggest an upside target for Gold that we show our subscribers in Thursday's newsletter. We continue to hold a significant position of Gold in our Conservative Investment Portfolio.
The Industrials jumped 203.82 points Thursday, closing at 10,005.96. NYSE volume was lower on the rally at 86 percent of its 10 day average. Rallies are occurring on declining volume and declines are arriving on rising volume. That is a bearish formula and one we would expect to see around tops. Half of the trading days the past few weeks have seen moves above 100 points. Increased volatility, even large up days, is also something common around significant tops.
The NASDAQ 100 rose 40.42 points Thursday, closing at 1,721.09. Our NDX key trend-finder indicators generated a new "buy" signal Thursday. The Russell 2000 rose 18.03 points Thursday, closing at 581.15. The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 2.91 points Thursday, closing at 433.03. December Gold rose to 1089.3, another new all-time high. Silver was flat at 17.41, while December Oil fell to 79.73. The Dollar fell 0.04 to 75.72. Bonds were flat at 118^07. The VIX fell 2.29 to 25.43.
Shorting should only be done with funds that are speculative and the investor is willing to accept a substantial loss on. That is because the PPT is very active at this time.
Check out our November Specials, good through Sunday, November 8th, including a fabulous 13 month offering, only $249, a little over $19 a month, or 2 years for only $459 at www.technicalindicatorindex.com .
Best regards,
Robert McHugh, Ph.D.
Top China growth play?
The Wall Street Journal today jumped on TFN's natural gas bandwagon: "Gas production from shales has boomed with new drilling technology that makes it easier to extract gas from dense rock formations. Shale formations, such as the Barnett Shale in Texas, have been largely credited with fueling a surge in domestic gas production. Producers must drill down to the rock, then horizontally through the formation, to break it apart and release the gas trapped within.
"A surge in supplies from these fields and weak demand for the fuel resulting from the economic downturn have contributed to falling natural gas prices.
"Natural gas prices have fallen by more than 60% from their summer 2008 highs above $13 a million British thermal units. Gas supplies, however, have remained abundant. Total gas in U.S. storage for the week ended Oct. 30 stood at an all-time high of 3.788 trillion cubic feet -- about 11% above last year's level and the 12% above the five-year average."
Andrew Snyder had been hinting at just this for months: We talked extensively about this in the late summer... and started belaboring the subject right here in the TFN eNews in September.
Three weeks ago, he moved his TFN Strategic Trader into position.
On one of his put options plays, his readers are up by 88% from the official entry price. But despite that gain, he's maintaining his buy rating on these puts. The shares underlying his second pick were also down today, thanks to dropping natural gas prices and rather anemic quarterly results. TFN Strategic Traders were up over 30% on the play, with stronger gains certainly on the way.
But Andrew was switching the status of his third put play from a buy to a hold: This ETF slid incredibly fast over the past two weeks -- down another 3% just today.
"That action has increased the value of our put options by 242%, with more gains likely on the way today," he wrote today. "While I'm positive we'll see significantly higher returns, the threat of a quick rebound is growing. If it happens, you'll get a shot at buying the contracts at reduced prices. Don't sell yet. But don't buy any more."
*** To make up for this status change, he offered a fourth Gas Basher play today: "This is a perfect day to enter the position as shares of the company are up on news of a positive quarterly earnings announcement. Fortunately for us, the good news will not last. The company specializes in natural gas compressors, which are used at gas wells as well as transportation pipelines.
"Of course the company had a decent quarter thanks to the massive Marcellus Shale growth. That’s no surprise. But the growth spurt will be short lived as the industry shoots itself in the foot. You know my thoughts on how the industry is about to plummet, thanks to a glut of production. Next Tuesday, we'll get confirmation from the International Energy Agency. When it happens, the action will unfold fast."
Read up on Andy's main argument right here: http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/TST/GAS/ETSTKA04.html
*** Protectionism is a reflex inherent in everybody who doesn't understand free markets and prosperity building. No surprise here: With over 10% of the U.S. workforce now actively seeking work -- not counting those who've given up -- the Obama White House just imposed another set of strong tariffs on imported Chinese goods.
It's proof the situation is getting tense. But in this contest, there's only one side holding four aces. That's why we say take advantage of the move and buy Chinese!
TFN's world-wise strategist Andrew writes: "Washington is getting serious about 'leveling' trade with China. Call it a desperate tool to fix our trade imbalance. Or call it bowing to American manufacturers -- whoever those may be. Just don't call it good news for the economy.
"Obama is going to get some mighty weak handshakes when he heads to Asia in a few days. After imposing the largest-ever tariff on imported Chinese pipe (almost 100%), Beijing is far from happy. As our dependence grows on China to fund the nation's debt, this is not a good time to tick off our most important trading partners.
"Despite tax-relived American middle-class liberals now complaining about 'taxpayers' bailing out financial institutions, it's worth mentioning that the bail-out money did not originate from U.S. tax revenues... but with our foreign lenders!
"Unfortunately, given the relative strength of the Chinese economy, Obama's latest trade sanction will hurt American more than China. We've got unemployment at 10.2%. Their economy is growing by a percentage almost as high."
So where to put your money?
One suggestion is China Infrastructure Investment Corp. (NASDAQ:CIIC). The tiny, $100 million company is nearly a pure play on the country's growth potential.
Find out more about this play right here: http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/international-investing/life-is-a-highway-a-chinese-highway-10298.html
***The 3 Best Stocks under $3 to buy Now!
We expect these new recommendations to bring in gains of perhaps 145%... 55%... 67%. Better yet, I think we can take some of those gains before Christmas. But you have to act immediately! http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/HSC/ridic/EHSCK902.html
*** Quote of the Day:
"I'm an American, and I'm for prosperity. What creates prosperity is free and competitive markets. That means limited government. And I will speak about that every chance I get." -- John Stossel, Creators.com
Recommended Reading:
Life is a highway, a Chinese highway
Best Books to Fight H1N1: 5 Great Reads to Beat the Swine Flu
Natural Gas Prices: "Stealth Buyer" tips his hand
Today's Top 3 Financial News Stories:
Finance.Yahoo.com -- Jobless rate tops 10 pct. for first time since '83 "The 10.2 percent jobless rate for October shows how weak the economy remains even though it is growing. The rising jobless rate could threaten the recovery if it saps consumers' confidence and makes them more cautious about spending as the holiday season approaches."
MoneyNews.com -- Zuckerman: U.S. On Brink of Deflation Crisis "Inflation typically results from too much money chasing too few goods,” writes Zuckerman in U.S. News & World Report. Today, too much supply is chasing too little demand."
Bloomberg.com -- Gold Advances to Record in New York, London After Jobs Data "Bullion is heading for a ninth consecutive annual gain and approaching $1,100 an ounce for the first time as investors seek to protect their wealth from the threat of inflation and the debasement of the U.S. currency. Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News."
Cordially yours,
J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher, TodaysFinancialNews.com
P. S. The U.S. Retirement System could owe YOU Money: A recent University study reports that millions of Americans could qualify for an extra $10,000 or more per year thanks to the U.S. Govt's retirement program.
If you've worked and have paid into this program, it's your legal right to collect your full benefit. New report explains the details: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/0909TRWANY49/MTRWKB04/PR
RIMM’s …Big Bet!
By Adam
“Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM) will spend up to $1.2 billion to buy back about 21 million of its shares, or 3.6% of its total shares outstanding. The buyback will start Nov. 9 and last for up to one year.”
That was the headline news today on Research in Motion symbol RIMM so I decided to look at the chart to see what was going on in the “real world”. When I got to the chart, one thing immediately jumped out at me and that was the negative action that this market has shown in the past several weeks. Looking at this market a little closer I was able to see that our “Trade Triangle” technology was 100% negative and that our monthly “Trade Triangle” indicator had turned negative on October 28th at $63.38. This is a major negative in my mind for this market.
In this short video I show you exactly what we expect to see for RIMM in the future. I also share with you some downside targets that we are looking at which may surprise you.
You may have watched my earlier videos on RIMM versus Apple. If you missed it, you can watch that video here.
As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I hope you enjoy the video and comment about it on our blog.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Crude Oil … Going Higher?
A Quick Update on the Crude Oil Market
I was just looking at the charts and they are beginning to look very, very bullish. The formation I show you in today’s video is a classic continuation pattern to the upside. This pattern also confirms a Fibonacci target number we are looking at.
This video is short and to the point and I think it will get you thinking about this energy market.
As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. After you watch the movie, please feel free to comment on blog.
All the best,Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
The Treasure of the Andes
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On Sunday, I’m boarding a plane for South America. My trip will include Chile and Argentina, from the eternally snow-covered peaks of the Andes to the windswept barrens of Patagonia. Part of my trip will include traveling by vehicle and foot at more than 4,500 meters above sea level (2.8 miles high!).
I have also been warned that I could face sudden, unexpected snowstorms AND intense heat and sun that could fry my skin like bacon. The waivers I’ve been required to sign cover everything — heck, I think that legally, now that I’ve signed these waivers, the mining crew is allowed to kill me and dump my body in a pit and dance around my grave, singing halleluiah.
Is it worth it? Yes. Because I’m on the trail of the treasure of the Andes.
A Potential Blockbuster
The company I’m visiting is an explorer, and it’s on to something. Just one of its projects is sitting on an inferred resource of more than 19 million ounces of gold and billions of pounds of copper. And it has more than one project — the other project is reporting bonanza gold and silver grades from its exploratory drilling program.
Now, these resources remain to be proven economically recoverable, and the mines remain to be built. And we’re talking South America — anything can happen. But if this is as big as the explorers think it is, it could be a blockbuster.
See, gold prices may be high, but they could go to the moon and we still wouldn’t be able to speed up the development of new gold mines. Even in a best-case scenario, it would still take five to seven years to bring new projects into production.
That means the big miners will start to get more frantic as gold prices go higher. They haven’t spent enough on exploration to replace the gold they pull out of the ground; it’s easier to buy new projects to fill their dwindling pipelines. And this project I’m talking about, which is potentially one of the biggest low-grade deposits found in recent years, could be just the ticket.
Feeding China’s Booming Market
I’ll have more on this discovery as I report from the field next week, and of course, my Red-Hot Global Small-Caps subscribers will get the news first. For now, I want to give you the scoop on Chile, one of South America’s undiscovered gems — and how you can play it.
The Republic of Chile is a country that is building its wealth on natural resources — copper, timber, iron ore, molybdenum, agricultural products including wine, and gold and silver. Exports account for 40% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). So, naturally, Chile got clobbered by the global recession. Chilean GDP contracted 2.3% and 4.5% in the first and second quarters of this year.
But the global economy is picking back up again, with increasing demand from China and other emerging markets. Chile, situated on the Pacific Ocean, is well positioned to feed into the booming China market. Thanks to growing exports and government stimulus, Chile’s mining output jumped 7.5% in September, and copper production surged 8.5%. Copper prices have climbed to $3 a pound from $1.50 a pound at the beginning of the year. The rest of the economy is picking up as well, and Chile will probably see third-quarter GDP grow by 1.5%.
Chile’s population is well-educated and has a reputation for working hard. The country welcomes foreign investment and tries to reduce red tape for foreign investors. There are no limits for the type of business that foreigners can develop in Chile or restrictions on property companies can own.
Two Ways to Play Chile
Chile’s benchmark IPSA index performed better than regional neighbors in last year’s downturn, but has lagged in the last six months. That’s because the IPSA has a larger percentage of utilities (27%) than other indices in the region like Brazil’s Bovespa, which is composed 40% of commodity stocks like mining giant Vale SA (VALE). Still, another downturn isn’t out of the question, so if you want some commodity exposure AND a potentially higher degree of safety, the IPSA may be the ticket for you.
One way to play the Chile market is the iShares MSCI Chile Index Fund (ECH). It has a total expense ratio of 0.63%. Another is the Chile Fund (CH), a closed-end mutual fund that was recently trading at a 7% discount to its net asset value.
And both funds have outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the past year …
Past returns are no guarantee of future performance, of course. If you like this for your own portfolio, make sure you do your own due diligence. And in this market, “nimble” and “cautious” are two words to live by.
As for my subscribers, the Red-Hot Global Small Caps portfolio already has a couple of South American picks, and there will likely be more to come. If you’ve ever thought about stepping up to bat and targeting big gains in small caps, it’s a great time to join!
Yours for trading profits,
Sean
P.S. Don’t forget, this is your last chance to register for the big Jurojin event, at noon today. Registration is closing at 10 a.m. this morning and only the first 1,000 people will be able to log on and listen to the webinar live, so be prompt. However, in case you do miss it, a replay will be available. And I may post updates on my travels on my blog at http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/, so be sure to stay tuned.
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About Uncommon Wisdom
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com
Uncommon Wisdom (UWD) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Sean Brodrick, Larry Edelson, and Tony Sagami. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in UWD, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in UWD are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
Attention editors and publishers! Uncommon Wisdom issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Uncommon Wisdom. Uncommon Wisdom is a free daily investment newsletter from Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, precious metals, natural resources, Asian and South American markets. From time to time, the authors of Uncommon Wisdom also cover other topics they feel can contribute to making you healthy, wealthy and wise. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com.
From time to time, Uncommon Wisdom may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Uncommon Wisdom or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions.
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Fed Signals “All Systems Go” for More Inflation
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I have been adamant recently in saying that the Federal Reserve would not … would NOT … signal an end to the easy money environment at this week’s policy meeting. These guys simply lack the political willpower and the inclination to do what’s right. They want to keep the booze flowing to inflate assets, the long-term consequences be darned.
Sure enough, the Fed reiterated Wednesday that it’s not worried at all about the surge in asset or commodity prices. It said,
“Substantial resource slack [is] likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.”
Not only that, the Fed also said it will keep rates low until the cows come home. Specifically, it said that it …
” … continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”
 |
| The FOMC isn’t worried about inflation. |
The only change the Fed did signal? That it’ll buy up to $175 billion in so-called “agency” debt, slightly below its previous target of $200 billion. But it’s still going to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.
And it’s not buying fewer bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because it suddenly realized the folly of “monetizing” U.S. debt obligations …
… it’s because of the “limited availability of agency debt” to buy. In other words, the Fed is afraid it’s cornering and distorting the market … which it is!
Never Forget: “Proactive” Is A
Dirty Word in Washington
Why have I been saying you should forget the empty talk you’re hearing about tighter policy? Because action is what counts. And it is abundantly clear to me that the Fed won’t take action until it’s forced to by a dollar crash, a bond market collapse, or some combination of both.
Those events would be important signals that the market has lost confidence in the Fed’s ability to control inflation and in the U.S. government’s willingness to preserve the value of the dollar, necessitating a policy response.
“Proactive” is quite simply a dirty word in Washington. Politicians (and this includes Fed members, no matter how much they like to pretend they’re not political creatures) don’t like to move before a crisis … only after one gives them the political cover to do so.
Indeed, history is clear: Rather than proactively tighten monetary policy in the late-1990s to quell the insane speculation in tech stocks, the Fed ignored the bubble until it gutted the portfolios of millions of investors. Then the Fed ignored the 2003-2006 housing bubble until it ruined the lives of millions of homeowners.
 |
| The Fed just told the markets to let the good times roll! |
Now, the Fed is doing the same thing again, but on an even grander scale. It’s inflating virtually every asset under the sun — junk bonds, corporate bonds, gold, commodities, stocks, you name it. And rather than proactively taking steps to control the markets … before they get OUT of control … they just told the market this week to let the good times roll!
Regulators, Congress looked the other way while Fannie, Freddie, and mega-banks drove themselves off a cliff!
It’s not just Fed policymakers. It’s the banking regulators and Congress, too!
Look at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. People were warning for years that they were taking on too much risk … that they were too thinly capitalized … and that a housing crash would bury them.
But Washington allowed the two agencies to go on their merry way, piling up huge amounts of debt and risk. We all know what happened then: They blew up, requiring tens of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bailout money.
Ditto for the banks that were making reckless, high-risk home equity loans, mortgages, and commercial real estate loans. Many observers, including us, were shouting from the rooftops that this would end in disaster.
But rather than shut down the lenders making these loans, or FORCE them to cut back on their risky lending, all the regulators did was issue mealy-mouthed “guidance” letters. The banks ignored them because they had no teeth. And not too long after, those banks began to fall like dominoes.
Bottom line: I don’t LIKE the Fed’s current policy of asset inflation. I know it’s going to end in tears. But until those events I mentioned earlier (currency crash, bond crash, etc.) occur, forcing a change in policy and leading to a shift in momentum, the only thing we can do as individual investors is play along and try to make as much money as possible.
Until next time,
Mike
P.S. Are you getting my intra-week updates on Twitter? No? Then what are you waiting for! Just go to http://www.twitter.com/realmikelarson and subscribe to this free service.
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About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com
Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig.
Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph:
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions.
| © 2009 by Weiss Research, Inc. All rights reserved. | 15430 Endeavour Drive, Jupiter, FL 33478 |
Market Analysis Video
Via: http://thechartpatterntrader.com/:
The histogram continues to keep us on the right side of the trade. The momentum shift to the upside that occurred on Tuesday continues to play out. Swing trades should only be on the long side at this time, that is if you're playing the contra-trend. Others should sit on the sidelines and wait for a lower high and then act on it.
We continue to anticipate that prices will risie back to horizontal resistance zone on the S&P 500 between 1070-1080. However, if we get a reaction off the upper boundary of the channel on the S&P 500 60-minute chart, we may fall short of that target. Regardless of whether we move above the channel line or not, we will be watching for a lower high to form on the daily chart of the S&P 500. That will set up a right shoulder in a large inverse head and shoulders pattern. But be advised, if prices begin to climb above the last minor high at 1101, then the pattern will fail. If we get a pivot reversal as a lower high forms on the daily chart, it will offer traders another chance to short the market. This last push lower I went long on SDS and SPXU and did very nicely. Those swing postions were closed last Tuesday.
I am so glad to hear that so many of our viewers were able to capitalize on the histogram signals this last push lower along with us. Thank you for sharing that with me. But one guy oddly doesn't get it. He emailed, scolding me for being short-term bearish right now. However as you know, that is incorrect. I'm not short-term bearish. I'm short-term bullish. Amazing!
We predicted the current contra-trend we are in before it happened thanks to the bullish triple P pattern. Now I know most of you get it, but this guy obviously isn't paying attention to the momentum shifts I've been talking about on the histogram or listening to a word I've been saying about the bullish divergence that set up on the hourly chart of the S&P 500 and QQQQ. How frustrating! Sorry, but when someone emails you, and starts telling you their interpetation of what you believe, and it is totally wrong, it shakes your faith as a teacher. It makes me wonder if I'm getting through to everybody. Besides that, he was extremely rude. One of those Mr. know-it-all types that we see so often in the investment community. He doesn't think much of technical analysis and loves the fundamentals.
I digress, we will look for fresh entry points on SDS and SPXU once the contra-trend has concluded. Watch for a pivot reversal and a lower high to set up on the daily chart of the S&P 500.
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